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2022年3月
The Federal Reserve has changed its policy stance considerably in the last few months in reaction to elevated inflation and strong recovery in the labor market. 金融市场目前预计，2022年将加息约5次，每次加息25个基点, 而就在2021年9月，这一预测还不到1次. This is on top of an accelerated end to its purchasing of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities announced late last year.
Underlying the adjustment in Fed policy is a stark shift in the evolution of the two primary mandates of the Fed: maintaining stable prices and achieving full employment. The inflation rate on personal consumption expenditures rose by over five percent year-over-year in December, 远高于美联储2%的平均物价目标. 这是自上世纪80年代初以来最强劲的通货膨胀速度. 与此同时, 截至去年年底，失业率已降至4%左右, signaling a much quicker improvement in the labor market than forecasted by Fed policymakers (see Table). 通胀上升可能对不同收入群体产生不同的影响. This poses challenging tradeoffs for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s revised strategic framework, 哪个国家强调了劳动力市场吃紧带来的再分配好处.
| 对2021年底通胀和失业率的预测 | |||
| FOMC集中趋势 (2020年12月预测) |
FOMC集中趋势 (2021年6月预测) |
实际 | |
| 通货膨胀率(PCE) (%) | 1.7 - 1.9 | 3.1 - 3.5 | 5.8 (4.9芯) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 失业率(%) | 4.7 - 5.4 | 4.4 - 4.8 | 3.9 |
*资料来源:联邦公开市场委员会经济预测摘要(2020年12月和2021年6月)，FRED
经济数据局(FRED)和经济分析局(东亚银行)，截至2022年2月25日.
鉴于经济前景和货币政策的明显变化, we highlight lessons from prior 该研究所 研究 that shed light on the potential effects of Fed rate hikes on household financial health. We set these lessons in the context of substantial shifts in household balance sheets since the onset of the pandemic.
储蓄库存和散户股市投资
- Disposable income and the personal savings rate has been high for most of the past two years, 导致了 液体平衡 整个收入分配. 本身, 这些趋势表明，, 平均, households are well-positioned to weather tighter financial conditions resulting from Fed rate hikes.
- 消费者越来越多地将储蓄投入股市投资, 它们本身就有风险. In 研究 去年出版的, we documented strong growth in transfers to retail brokerage accounts around the onset of the pandemic, 收入最低的四分之一家庭增幅最大. We also observed a strong tendency for such transfers to track short-term trends in the stock market, 一种在市场回调时可能导致损失的模式.
- With higher household balances on both extremes of the risk spectrum (from lower-risk checking account balances to higher-risk stock market investments), 支出与加息的轨迹可能会比以往更加不同. 流动性较高的企业今年可能会成为支撑需求的顺风, but households that recently increased their stock market investments (including first-time investors) could experience spending cutbacks in the event of a significant tightening in financial conditions. 考虑到这种潜在的异质性, financial market wealth effects may be more difficult to gauge in the current environment yet remain an important part of monetary policy transmission to the economy.
抵押贷款利率上升，房价上涨
- 自2019年以来，价格平均上涨了约20%, 负担能力是房地产市场的核心问题. In the absence of a decline in home prices—unlikely given severely restricted housing supply coupled with increased demand—higher mortgage rates mean that homeownership may be even less attainable for many households, 这会对有色人种家庭造成不成比例的影响.
- 相反, 作为快速增值资产的持有者, 房主们坐拥创纪录的房产财富.1 到2020年和2021年，套现再融资活动稳步增长, 将房屋净值转化为当前消费. 该研究所 研究 has estimated that homeowners spend 33 percent of what they take out via cash-out refinances within one year. Less refinancing due to higher mortgage rates implies reduced consumer demand from that channel. 这包括套现、利率和定期再融资.
- The majority of homeowners who have fixed rate mortgages will likely come out ahead with rising inflation and rates. 然而, 适用于相对较小的可调利率抵押贷款(ARMs)房主, a rising rate environment may cut into their consumption as their mortgage payments adjust upwards. 该研究所 研究 has estimated that homeowners increase their spending by nine percent in anticipation of lower monthly payments when their ARMs reset downwards and 15 percent after the reset. 如果类似的模式适用于arm复位更高, 持有arm的房主将面临消费能力下降的问题.
The Fed has to balance risks to consumers’ financial health resulting from tighter policy now against a potential deepening of financial vulnerabilities—including feeding speculative behavior in the stock and housing markets—that could result from a weak response to high inflation. Rate hikes tend to affect the population in a variety of ways that are difficult to gauge with precision. The recent sharp changes in household balance sheets and asset prices make it even more challenging to predict the effects of tighter policy. 我们相信在理解家庭异质性方面的持续进步, 以细致的粒度数据分析为支撑, are an essential part of policymakers’ toolkits as we approach the impending rate hike cycle.
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